A quick qualifying recap, and a quicker race preview…
Q1
Very little running for the first 5 minutes. Most teams are hoping to let the track rubber in a bit, but they have to balance that with getting sent out in traffic and potentially caught by a yellow or red flag.
Everyone else goes out around 12 min remaining. Alpine look squirrely through the corners. They are losing the rear through the low speed corners, but the fronts through the high speed ones. Not ideal!!
Really impressed with Tsunoda, he’s super quick and is a total character… his goal for the season is to cut down his on-camera swearing. He’s also the shortest driver on the grid, and the first driver born in this millennium… He’s been alive for less time than Alonso and Raikkonen have been in F1.
Verstappen loses a piece of the floor, which is NOT GOOD for qualifying. He can replace it for the race, but his aerodynamics will be affected, and the Red Bull needs every bit of speed to keep ahead of the Merc’s (and surprisingly the Alpha Tauri’s?).
We lose Ocon, Latifi, Vettel, and the Haas’ in Q1. Rough look for Vettel and Ocon. It seems like Vettel isn’t mentally into it, but he got caught with a few yellow flags. His interview was tough to watch, especially as Stroll looked like he had good pace.
The stewards are now investigating some lap times that might have been set under a yellow flag caused by Carlos Sainz’ engine stopping.
Q2
Remember, if a driver gets to Q3, the driver will have to start on the tyres they set the fastest lap on.
The quicker strategy for tomorrow will be a start on the Medium tyres, and a switch to the softs at the end of the race when fuel is lower and there is more rubber on the track. Ferrari is starting on the softs, as well as Fernando Alonso in the Alpine. This will be the alternate strategy… Tsunoda and Gasly look really confident and will start tomorrow on the mediums.
Ricciardo and Perez both get a lap time deleted for exceeding track limits. At Turn 4, drivers can spin a little wide and effectively take a shortcut to Turn 5… the stewards notices told all the drivers to chill and stop with the shenanigans, and that they would start deleting lap times if all 4 wheels were off kerbs. This is fair but super harsh, and a big penalty for the drivers if they blow it. Not only do they burn the time it took to do the out lap, the flying lap, and an in lap, but they waste the freshest lap of the tyres and will require a new pair of boots.
Perez went for a gamble on a second lap with the old tyres and gets totally screwed by the strategy… he misses getting into Q2 and will start 11th. The curse of the second Red Bull… Gasly, Albon, and now Perez just all seem to have bad luck in qualifying.
We lose Perez, Giovinazzi, Tsunoda, Raikkonen, and Russe in Q2l. The two Ferrari’s top the session and will start tomorrow on the softer compound tyre… this opens up interesting strategic options
Q3
In the first laps, Verstappen drops the hammer and goes two one-hundredths faster than Hamilton, and Gasly splits the Mercedes. Pretty unreal that we’re that close on two RADICALLY different cars. The Red Bull seems to pick up time in the second sector, and loses out a bit in the long, straight first and third. This makes sense, as the Mercedes engine will give them a great push on the straights but the low-rake design loses mechanical grip in the medium- and high-speed turns.
The final laps are excellent. Mercedes have sorted some of their issues, but certainly not all; Bottas barely beats Leclerc for the 3rd spot. Verstappen SMOKES his final lap and blows past Hamilton by 4 tenths, driving an enviable purple lap: he set the fastest time in all 3 sectors.
Race Preview
This is a really interesting starting grid. Verstappen and Hamilton on the front row is an epic battle, and Bottas in the 3-spot will really help Mercedes’ strategists. Verstappen will get to replace any damaged bit of floor to the same spec he used at the start of qualifying, but the wildcard tomorrow is Leclerc, who starts 4th on the soft tyre. He will be able to get off the line much quicker than those other 3 and Bahrain has a great overtaking opportunity in Turn 1. If Bottas flubs his start (not unlikely) we could see Leclerc do very well and mess with some of the Mercedes’ strategy.
The McLaren’s are also well-positioned strategically. They’re doing really well and are right behind Gasly (who deserves some serious praise for driving the wheels off the Alpha Tauri), but the McLaren’s are also starting on soft tyres. They should be able to make up some early ground, and their earlier pit stop could bring a cheeky undercut into play. I like the McLaren prospects for fantasy this week.
Tomorrow is going to be really interesting. The weather is going to be much cooler and much windier than anything we’ve seen this weekend or in testing, so we could see some spins, especially around Turn 13. That is the highest part of the track (relatively, as this is a pretty flat circuit) but is quite wind-affected. The prevailing winds also blow from behind and to the right of the drivers, so look for the back of the car to slide out to the driver’s left as the wind un-weights the rear tyres.
The stewards are taking a look at some of the Q1 lap times, and I’ll update if anything changes. Some drivers might not have slowed down after seeing yellow flags, and if they improved their time, we could see some penalties.
Lights go out at 11am Eastern.
Vroom vroom
Reed