Racing Fans
Last week in Las Vegas, Russell won ahead of Hamilton and Sainz (who disregarded team orders to let Leclerc through). Verstappen finished 5th ahead of Norris in 6th, which meant Verstappen won the Driver’s Championship. For me, this is a more impressive driving accomplishment for Verstappen than in the past. While the Red Bull was strong early (they were so dominant in 2023 that they were able to shift the development focus to the 2024 car early last year, and were able to build up a cushion), it has not been the consensus fastest car since before the summer break. Winning the Driver’s title this year required some incredible driving, including flawless tyre management in Canada, millimeter-perfect defense against a faster Norris in Imola, and a peerless drive in the Sao Paolo rain. The Driver’s title was well-earned.
The Constructor’s title is still contested, with McLaren only 24 points ahead of Ferrari going into this weekend.
The teams flew from Vegas all the way to Qatar. Commercially, the most direct route is a 23 hour and 10 minute flight east with a layover in Philadelphia. While the F1 teams will likely make at least 1 refueling stop, the travel and the time change will be challenging to manage.
Qatar is well-liked by the drivers, though there have only been two F1 races here (2021 and 2023). The circuit is a 16-turn, high-speed beast where drivers will go the 3.3 miles in about 1 minute and 25 seconds. There are a few interesting turns, including a hairpin at Turn 6 and a triple-apex complex at Turns 12-14.
Qatar is also a sprint race weekend, so there are extra points available at the expense of track time. There was only one practice session before the sprint qualifying, where Norris qualified on pole ahead of Russell, Piastri, and the two Ferraris, and won handily.
After the sprint race, McLaren is now 30 points ahead of Ferrari in the Constructor’s standings.
For the feature race, Verstappen and Russell both qualified ahead of Norris, with the Ferraris further down in 5th and 7th. The McLaren’s didn’t look as strong in qualifying as they did in the sprint, and they will be vulnerable in the race: their car does not do very well when following in dirty air.
W2W4: Drivers
Last week, Sainz was told to let Leclerc through to preserve his run for second place in the Driver’s championship. He declined, and he wound up on the podium. Sainz will be off to Williams a week from Monday and can’t be blamed for wanting to add another podium to his list before he goes to a far less competitive car, but Qatar is a critical race for Ferrari’s push in the Constructor’s Championship. Watch how Sainz and Leclerc race each other on Sunday, and whether Ferrari put in any additional team orders with leclerc qualifying ahead of Sainz.
W2W4: On the Track
The Qatar circuit is high-speed and offers great racing. Because the circuit has several opportunities to run wide and there have been track limits issues in past years, steep kerbs were installed last year to penalize track limits. They were far too effective, and the sharp kerbs were biting into the tires and opening massive failures. It was so bad that the FIA issued a statement mandating an 18-lap maximum for each set of tyres. This year, no such directive exists, and the kerbs have been shaved down so no issues are anticipated. Instead, the circuit installed thin gravel traps that on the outside of problematic turns. Watch for gravel spray if a car goes too wide, and the resulting slower pace will open drivers up for an overtake. This was a big issue for Russell in qualifying, who ran a bit wide and the gravel affected the aerodynamics of his floor.
W2W4: Off the Track
Formula 1 announced on Monday that they are allowing a bid from General Motors to move forward, bringing the number of teams on the grid in 2026 up to 11. This announcement comes just months after a similar application from Andretti-Cadillac was rejected for not adding value to the championship. The big (stated) reason that GM was allowed to enter was because they laid out a comprehensive plan to become a works F1 team, meaning they would design and build all of the non-standard components including the power unit and engine. Currently, only Mercedes, Ferrari, and Alpine are full-works teams, though Alpine is in talks with becoming a customer team. The works teams are part of the F1 ethos, and are a major driver of F1 innovation. They are the “factory” teams are responsible for the PU/engine updates and integrations, and they have a big influence on the development of the other cars: the shape of a power unit or engine can dramatically alter what is possible aerodynamically.
Power units and engines are so complex and proprietary that customer teams typically do not even have the ability to power on the engines. McLaren, for instance, receives their engine from Mercedes every week along with a team who oversee the three I’s: installation, ignition and start-up (accomplished with a lighter on a long stick and several computers, as F1 has no spark plugs), and interpretation of engine data. While Mercedes is contractually obligated to provide the exact same engine to the customer teams as it runs in its own car, the customer teams would have no way of knowing if this is true.
To be competitive, GM has also been spending considerable time in the wind tunnel. Because they are not currently a competing team, they have unrestricted wind tunnel time to develop their 2026 car. This will be beneficial but is no guarantee of success: in 2001, Toyota spent a ton of time in the wind tunnel and even had a test car racing on the track. At the end of their first season, they were tied for dead last. There is so much that goes into competing in F1 that expectations need to be low for the first few years as they develop the team and their talent. Regarding GM drivers, Colton Herta is the frontrunner for a GM seat. He’s a massive American talent in IndyCar, but GM would need to partner him with someone with F1 experience to help him adjust to a faster formula. To pair Herta, I could see Valterri Bottas joining in the offseason and spending all of 2025 helping develop the car. He has crucial experience with the Mercedes works team, and currently doesn’t have a seat. He could take something a little lower-intensity and continue his gravel racing passion while setting up for 2026.
All this is to say that 2026 will be exciting and bringing another works team on is exciting for everyone. Keep an eye on the GM news for further developments, as they will start moving quickly. GM has to pay an “expansion fee” to offset the potential earnings loss for other teams, and once the $450 million dollar check clears they will be “off to the races”.
Weather
Weather for the race looks good. It’s a nighttime race in the desert, so no rain expected. Moderate amounts of wind, but the track has a buffer zone to limit sand deposits from the surrounding area so it won’t be much of an issue.
The race goes off at 11am Eastern on Sunday morning. After this, there is only the season finale in Abu Dhabi next weekend before the offseason.
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